Forecasting Guide Collaboration

Developing a Forecasting Guide in collaboration with DELIVER
RESPOND is collaborating with DELIVER to develop a tool for integrating commodity procurement forecasting with service delivery planning in order to facilitate the introduction of new FP methods and related commodities, and to provide support for new approaches for training and service expansion, such as with introduction of Sino-Implant or LNG-IUS in one country. This will be a technical document aimed at procurement professionals. 

Contraceptive security is a critical but often overlooked component when introducing a new or scaling up an existing contraceptive method, significant training events or a new approach for service expansion (e.g. mobile services). Forecasting for commodities is integrally linked with planning and advocacy surrounding the new services. Advocacy is necessary to make the case that relying solely on past procurement/usage will be inadequate in determining commodity needs. Planners need to consider other systems strengthening interventions (training, supervision) that will impact their commodity forecasts, as well as anticipated interventions to tap into demand. Consequently, family planning programs that wish to introduce or scale-up provision of a contraceptive method would benefit from a structured model to guide the process.
 
Key issues that this document will address include: 
  (1) Addressing LA/PM supply needs that go beyond contraceptive commodities (for surgical, insertions, removals, etc.)
  (2) Addressing how to forecast FP methods with relatively low use, but are growing quickly such as implants.


Related Links

• Using Quantification to Support Introduction and Expansion of Long-Acting and Permanent Methods of Contraception. USAID. Washington, DC. (October 2010)
• Getting the Numbers Right: A Guide to USAID-Developed Contraceptive Forecasting Tools. USAID. Washington, DC. (November 2009)